My dreams of a perfect 4-0 record on Wild Card weekend came crashing down after a late Seahawks collapse in Dallas and the dreaded double-doink game-winning field goal miss by Cody Parkey in Chicago. Although I’m admittedly disappointed in going 2-2 on my picks, life goes on just as the NFL playoffs do. With four great matchups on tap in the divisional round this weekend, I try to sift through all the noise to deliver the MOST accurate predictions on the world wide web. Enjoy!
(6) Indianapolis Colts @ (1) Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday 4:35 p.m. Line: Chiefs -5.5
The last time these two teams met up in the postseason was in a 2013 Wild Card game, where Andrew Luck and the Colts overcame a 38-10 halftime deficit to take down the Chiefs, 45-44.
There will be a big emphasis on offense in this matchup as both the Colts and Chiefs finished in the top 10 in the league in yards per game in the regular season. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be the usual suspects for the Chiefs offense, and they might be getting Sammy Watkins back on the field for the first time since early November. Watkins was third on the team in the regular season in receptions and yards. For the Colts, Hilton, Inman and Ebron all had four or more catches against Houston, but the offense was led by Marlon Mack’s 148 yards on the ground.
The Chiefs were ranked 27th in the league in rushing yards given up a game in the regular season, so running the ball might be the key to the game for the Colts. The Chiefs will want this game to be a shoot-out. Mahomes and company know they can outscore any team they play, so the biggest fear for that Kansas City defense is for the Colts to control the clock and time of possession. The more time the Colts effectively burn off of the clock, the less time Mahomes has to throw dots and lasers all over the field.
Prediction:
The Colts will lean on Marlon Mack to open the game, and the hot Colts offense will be dominant. Mahomes will struggle in the first half as the Colts will take a two possession lead into half time, 17-7. Twitter will erupt. Hot takes will be plenty. The Chiefs will make halftime adjustments and Mahomes will come out reminding the world why he should win MVP, en route to an electrifying offensive second half. A two-minute drill touchdown for Kansas City gives them the lead, and Andy Reid and the Chiefs bury their playoff demons.
Chiefs 30 Colts 26 (Colts +5.5)
(4) Dallas Cowboys @ (2) Los Angeles Rams, Saturday 8:15 p.m. Line: Rams -7.5
The Cowboys were an impressive 8-1 at home this season, but an uninspiring 3-5 on the road. However, with the low attendance marks for LA, I can imagine a stadium at least half full of Cowboys fans. Although the game isn’t in Jerry’s World, can the Cowboys take advantage of the lack of home-field advantage for the Rams?
There will be a ton of pressure on the shoulders of Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley this weekend. Both backs have been in the MVP conversation this year, as they both ran for over 1,200 yards in the regular season. Elliot, you could argue, is the best player on the Cowboys and is the engine that runs the Dallas offense. Dak Prescott is a game manager. He won’t be throwing 300+ yards with three touchdowns. The Cowboys offense has improved since acquiring Amari Cooper, but the run game sets up the pass game. On the other side of the ball, Gurley missed the last two weeks of the regular season with an ankle injury, but the bye week has the star running back feeling much improved. The Rams offense needs Gurley to be effective. In the Rams three losses this year, Gurley has rushed for 68, 28, and 48 yards. The Rams use play-action often, but if the defense isn’t biting then it is hard for Jared Goff to be effective.
The Cowboys boast one of the most potent run defenses in the league, and it was on display last week as they held the Seahawks to only 73 yards rushing. Gurley is still coming off of an injury, and it is in question how effective he will be. The Cowboys must first shut down Gurley in order to contain the Los Angeles offense. On the defensive side for the Rams, they have underachieved all season. Their run defense is poor. Going up against Zeke Elliot will be a tall task.
Prediction: UPSET ALERT
The Rams have basically ignored the defensive side of the ball all season and that will come back to bite them today. Dak will control the ball, not force anything and just let Elliot eat. The Cowboys talented defense, led by Leighton Vander-Esch, Jaylon Smith, Byron Jones and Demarcus Lawrence will play lights out. In an old-school, smash mouth style football game, Dallas will prevail on the backs of Elliot and their defense.
Cowboys 24 Rams 20 (Cowboys +7.5)
(5) Los Angeles Chargers @ (2) New England Patriots, Sunday 1:05 p.m. Line: Patriots -4
This is the toughest game of the weekend to call. Philip Rivers is a career 0-7 vs. Tom Brady and everybody knows how dominant New England is in the playoffs in Foxborough. The Patriots finished the regular season 8-0 at home, while the Chargers come into the game 8-1 on the road (including the road win over the Ravens in the wild card game). Something will have to give.
The Chargers have the better roster. Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, and Desmond King are some of the most talented players in the NFL. The Patriots always seem to do more with less, which is evident this year as Brady’s best weapons are James White, Sony Michel, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. The backfield duo of White and Michel have proven to provide the solid running attack that New England normally does not have. If it weren’t for a injury that held Michel out of three games in the regular season, he would have finished with well over 1,000 yards.
The Chargers rarely blitz, as they prefer to let their dominant edge rushers in Bosa and Ingram to wreak havoc. The weather forecast in New England is looking like cold and snowy, which are conditions that don’t bode well for a high scoring game. Melvin Gordon and Sony Michel could both see a high volume of touches, which makes the run game an important factor. Another interesting stat to look out for is that New England’s defense allowed 59 pass plays of 20+ yards in the regular season. With the weather possibly limiting offense, both teams will need to choose moments to look downfield for a big play to separate themselves, and I like the Chargers offense more for that possibility. Keenan Allen is a very good possession receiver, but watch out for Mike and Tyrell Williams to create some big plays down the field.
Prediction:
It is hard to pick against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in January, but the Chargers are the better team, and they play better on the road. This game features two of the smartest pre-snap quarterbacks of this era, and because of that this game will be a low-scoring chess match. At the end of the day, the Chargers just have more big time players than the Patriots. Do you know what they say about big time players? They make big time plays in big time games.
Chargers 20 Patriots 16 (LAC +4)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints, Sunday 4:40 p.m. Line: Saints -8
These two teams met back in week 10 in New Orleans, where the Saints beat down the Eagles 48-7. Drew Brees and his offense out gained Philadelphia 546-to-196. It wasn’t close. Carson Wentz was under center for the Eagles, which has been proven to be a much different offense than when Nick Foles is throwing the ball.
The Eagles are 4-0 since the living legend Nick Foles again took the reigns of the team this season, beating the Rams, Texans, Redskins and the #1 defense in the league at Chicago last week. The Philly offense wasn’t firing on all cylinders against the Bears, but Nick Foles was able to find his big time weapons enough to pull out the win. Alshon Jeffery hauled in six catches while Zach Ertz and Golden Tate each caught five. The Eagles will have to score with New Orleans in order to win this game, so I would expect those three guys to receive a lot of looks from Foles.
The Saints have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, which should be able to exploit the Eagles weak secondary. Both the Saints and Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed per game, so I expect defense to be optional on Sunday.
Alvin Kamara for the Saints and Darren Sproles for the Eagles serve as x-factors due to their versatility in the run game and pass game. Sproles was limited to under 50 yards of total offense against the Bears, but in what projects to be a strong offensive game, look for Sproles to get more touches and be more effective.
Prediction:
The Saints come out on fire, scoring on their first three possessions. But, Nick Foles does not go gentle into that good night, and somehow keeps Philadelphia in the game at halftime, 21-14. Offenses trade blows in the second half, as Drew Brees puts up video-game like numbers. With the Eagles trailing by a score midway through the fourth quarter, an interception by Foles and a subsequent game-sealing touchdown for the Saints end the Philadelphia’s magic run. A garbage time touchdown for the Eagles breaks the heart of betters everywhere, as the Eagles cover the spread late.
Saints 35 Eagles 28 (Eagles +8)
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